The Chargers’ Playoff Chances in Four Tweets

In short: UAH could have realistically finished higher than 7th with any points against Ferris this weekend, especially with a sweep that would have put the Chargers in 6th and, with 19 points in hand, a glimmer of a shot at home ice.  Instead, Ferris and Northern swept, providing significant separation between 6th and 7th and keeping the Falcons out of a run for the McNaughton.


If and only if there’s not a situation where UAH, LSSU, and UAA are all tied.  If, say, UAA goes 4-0-0, UAH goes 1-2-1, and LSSU goes 2-1-1, all three teams would have 18 points, with all teams at 8-18-2.

A tiebreaker is invalid, as the only four-game series amongst the three is UAH-LSSU.

B tiebreaker is invalid, as all teams have eight conference wins.

C tiebreaker: UAH would be 1.000 against UAA and .625 against LSSU.  LSSU and UAA split their season series.  That pulls UAH out of the tiebreaker and into 7th (great question, Neil!  I hadn’t thought about it).

D tiebreaker: With UAA and LSSU still tied up, you go to winning percentage down the table.

UAA hasn’t played BG yet (and will this weekend in Anchorage), and the Seawolves were swept by MTU and MSU.  LSSU went 1-2-1 against BG.  In this scenario, Anchorage wins because they’d be 2-0-0 against the Falcons and would win the third comparison.  In the unlikely sequence where the Falcons lose out and the Beavers win out, LSSU would win the third comparison, having swept Bemidji while UAA went winless.

What if LSSU passes the Chargers?  Well, at that point, UAH and UAA are battling it out, and UAH wins the C tiebreaker if the teams end up tied at 8-18-2.  If UAH did something crazy like end up at 7-17-4, UAA would win.

Isn’t this fun?

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